The View from here, April, 2008

[blogger]

The View from here, April, 2008

So it's been tough. Last couple of months have been quiet, and the newspaper hasn't helped. I left for vacation a few weeks ago and I didn't want to look at our income statements until I returned, expecting to see red, flowing from the pages......

I returned, and got up the nerve to look at my numbers and compare them with last year, bracing for the worst and............

They were EXACTLY the same as last year. Sales are up, closings are exactly the same, and while my costs are a little high.....really, alot better than I had thought!

I'll have to admit, I was expecting so, so much worse! Mostly, I was really bummed about my call that there was a bottom a few months back. I really do sense it, and I think that while we will be dragging along the bottom for a fairly long time. Most models indicate that the bulk of the mortgage resets, etc aren't until june, but with all this intervention, I think the worst of it has passed. (and been shifted back to the public in general, including those of us who weren't profligate borrowers, but that's for another posting)

For those of you who are waiting for the bottom to fall out, let me say this, you missed it. If the bottom does fall out at this point, you most certainly wont be buying anything, because most likely, you wont be able to obtain any kind of financing. Short of a major disaster (now under 20% and falling, thank you very much) in this marketplace, or the total implosion of Real Estate lending in it's entirety, we are past it.

That said, it's going to be rough rough rough for a bunch of years.........

See you next month!

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