The View from Here, November, 2007

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The View from Here, November, 2007

Credit...Markets...Siezing...Must.Keep.Wheels.On.Economy....
(Says Superman as he fights the market implosion like it was some giant outer space monster....)

Nope, it isn't, we made this mess, and we are going to have to ride this one out. We, when I say we, I mean, the other We, those like me in Atlanta, Florida, California and the poster children of trouble...Arizona and Nevada.

Sometimes I wonder if my life has become too boring, as we plod along, comfortable, not too hot, not too cool. Then I see the pain being inflicted in other markets, and I say to myself....."whew" glad that isn't us. Yet.

I read a comment from the NAR convention where one of the presenters stood up on staged and listed all the people who were the cause of all this pain. He started at number five, predatory lenders, and as he worked his way through bad appraisers, greedy secondary markets, and lax regulators, the applause got louder and louder,

Shouts of "yeah!" were heard from the packed room of Realtors.

And then he got to number one. "REALTORS" and the room fell silent.

That's the word on the street, anyway.

Remember last month where I pointed out which banks seemed to be holding it together? Wells Fargo and US Bank....Rocking right along, well poised to move forward without major writedowns......so far.

The problem is, illiquidity in credit markets leads to other things, and one of those flanks could prove painful. We just don't know when it will show up. One thing is for sure, if it continues to spread, and the public calls for faster writedowns of lost assets.....this could go from bad to worse in a couple of days. I'm not sure why anyone would want to take it past the fourth quarter, unless it's really ugly......

Ok back to Hood River. Things are, well, are....actually quiet, but kind of normal. Still humming along. Had a few casualties here in the last week, and the board looks light.....but the phone is ringing and we still have clients.....how bad can it be?

There's some hot deals out there right now, that's for sure. Here's a couple of good Stats from this month:

1. The Average sale price, Year to date, in Hood River, is $326,000.00. (Down .7% YOY) On the West Side its $434,000.00 (Up 2.7% YOY) and on the East Side, its $647,000.00!(up 16%, but with only two sales YTD)

2. The average Days on Market in Hood River is 76 days with Days on Market on the West Side of 201. Hood River City, 126 units sold YTD, West Side 36. Currently on the Market in Hood River, 100 units. West Side 32 Units.

Anything in there? Surprising strength on the West side. I would have tossed up a caution flag, based upon the inventory out there, but then I realize the inventory out there is exactly what the market wants (Cool Craftsman homes on larger lots) and I'm thinking things might not be so bad out there right now.....(The 201 days is an anomaly, and it's my fault...one of my longer listings)

See you next Month!

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