The View from Here, September 2008

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The View from Here, September 2008

....You really should go back and read my posts from a year ago. It's hilarious.

Well, here we are, deep in the correction. I rolled over last night and for a brief moment in that semi-lucid state, felt what it would be like if the rescue package didn't go through. It was scary. I got up, and have been sitting at my computer since, attempting a pithy write up that makes light of what is truly an unmitigated disaster.

I think the Bailout is morally wrong. I don't care anymore, but enough is enough. That sentiment could cost me my business, but I'm certain people will still need to buy houses, and in what is becoming "no place for old men" our services will still be in demand. (That last quote, by the way was apt, and first used to describe the tearing off of the roof that was last week in the Financial Times. It's sticking.)

Now, something positive about Hood River.....Let's see. If you've read my last couple of posts, they've been observations about why Hood River, and the Northwest is different, but ultimately may still suffer the same fate as the rest of the country. If the people now running fannie mae and freddie mac view the Northwest as "overvalued" because more people want to move here than ever before, well that would just be unfortunate. If some new ratio test related to multiple times median incomes artificially marks us down.....well, I'm uncertain what I can say about that one, but I think it might be in the offing.

The funny part is this, "Underwater Lock Down" is in full effect, and our inventory is shrinking. Properties are selling, and prices are being supported. We've found a floor in this part of the country, because we are becoming, and still are a desirable place to move to. In Hood River County, prices managed a 1% increase, with some downtown neighborhoods still posting strong positives.

Now, next month, you are going to see a drop in value, as the late seasonal mark downs finally close, but overall, this was not that tragic. This big question now is "where's the liquidity going to come from?" Because going forward, it's going to be tough. There's alot of mistrust out there, and it will be very, very difficult to apply regional and local standards to a nationalized product (mortgage secondary market) when it's EXACTLY a regional feature that differentiates our market.....

What's that all boil down to? That's the pithy line I've been looking for. Last year it was "get it gone" I think now I'll point out that there's still alot of "Here, Here" and that when you come to buy a place in our area, remember that we are not a suburb in Nevada, We are Hood River, the place many people want to move to now that things are getting scarier, and scarier. Problem is, in a rush to nationalize our standards, you may no longer be able to.

I'll see you next month.

Defiantly,


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